Methodology
How every number gets here.
Arcarios publishes figures readers are expected to act on, so the process that produces them is part of the product. Five steps, the same every time.
The process
Source to publication
- 01
Source
Every figure starts from a primary document: company filings with the SEC, official index publications, central bank releases, or the published statistics of a recognised institution. Market history uses the index provider and the official recession dating of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Fundamentals come from institutional market data vendors covering US listed companies, the same feeds used by professional research desks.
- 02
Extract
Data is pulled on a stated day and frozen for the study. That extraction date appears on the article, because a screen run a month later is a different screen. When a study covers a universe, we say which one: the S&P 500, the US listed universe above a given size, or the specific index under examination.
- 03
Compute
Calculations run through our own analysis engine. Each published screen or ranking states its criteria in the order they are applied, so a reader with the same data can rebuild the result. Where a metric has several accepted definitions, we state the one we used and why.
- 04
Verify
Before publication, every number in the text is checked against the source it came from, and every internal calculation is recomputed independently. Figures that cannot be traced back to a source are removed rather than rounded into something plausible.
- 05
Publish
The article ships with its sources, its extraction date, and its limitations: coverage gaps, survivorship effects, and what the numbers genuinely cannot tell you. Charts carry the same figures as the text, and the underlying calculation is described in the caption.
Freshness
How current the numbers are
Market history studies use figures that do not change: closing peaks, troughs, official recession dates, published policy rates. They are reviewed once a year and carry their original publication date.
Screens and rankings built on company fundamentals age fast. Each one shows the day its data was extracted, at the top of the article and in the chart caption. If a study has no visible extraction date, treat it as a bug and tell us.
Accountability
Corrections
When an error is found, whether by a reader or by us, the article is corrected, its visible revision date is updated, and the change is recorded below. We do not quietly edit a number and move on. Factual accuracy beats looking right.
To report an error, write to jerome@renardpublishing.com with the article and the figure in question. Corrections to a published number are made within two working days of verification.
Corrections log
No correction published yet. This log starts with the site, and every entry stays here permanently with its date, the article affected and what changed.
Limits
What our numbers cannot do
- A screen is a starting list, never a buy list. It says nothing about what a business will earn next year.
- Historical data carries survivorship effects: companies that failed leave the index, and the record flatters those that remain.
- Coverage is US listed companies. Figures do not extend to private companies or to markets we do not track.
- Past drawdowns and recoveries describe what happened, not what will happen.
Read this alongside our disclaimer. Arcarios publishes analysis, never advice.