Analysis

Stock analysis

How to read a business through its numbers: metrics, filings, red flags and valuation.

A company tells you what it is in its own filings, every quarter, for free. Almost nobody reads them, which is exactly why reading them still pays.

This is the core of Arcarios. Everything here turns an annual report into a judgement: what the business earns on the capital it uses, how much of its reported profit arrives as cash, what it quietly pays its own staff in shares, and what price the market is asking for all of it today.

Start with the guide to analyzing a stock, which lays out the full sequence from first look to decision. From there the articles fall into three groups.

The first is the metrics that tell you whether the business is any good: return on invested capital against return on equity, free cash flow, operating margins, and the gap between revenue growth and earnings growth. The second is the filings themselves, how to read a 10-K without reading all of it, and the red flags that hide in financial statements.

The third is valuation, where enterprise value to EBITDA is put against the price to earnings ratio that most investors stop at.

Read in that order, the section answers one question: is this a good business, and is this a good price. The two are separate, and confusing them is how investors end up owning excellent companies that still lose them money.

What you will not find here is a price target, a timing call, or a list of what to buy this month. None of it is a stock tip. It is the work you do before anyone can sell you one.

11 articles

In this section

How to Read a 10-K in 30 Minutes

A 30-minute reading plan for any 10-K: which sections to read first, what to skip, and the numbers to check before you buy a stock.

ROIC vs ROE: Which One Measures Quality?

ROIC and ROE both measure returns, but debt can inflate ROE. Here is how each ratio works, where they diverge, and which one better captures business quality.